New York’s Mayoral Primary Shocker: How Prediction Markets Saw It Coming
New York City woke up Wednesday to a result few expected—Zohran Mamdani, the progressive candidate most polls had written off, won the Democratic mayoral primary. But while traditional pollsters missed the mark, the numbers on prediction platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi told a different story.
Before Tuesday’s vote, conventional wisdom pointed to former Governor Andrew Cuomo as the favorite. Polls backed that up—until Monday, when an Emerson College survey hinted at Mamdani’s strength in ranked-choice scenarios. Almost immediately, the odds on prediction markets shifted.
The Tipping Point
Polymarket, a blockchain-based platform, quickly adjusted Mamdani’s chances to near-certainty. Kalshi, which doesn’t use blockchain, reacted even faster. Cuomo’s odds there plummeted from over 70% to 46% in hours, while Mamdani surged to even footing. By election morning, both platforms had all but declared him the winner—well before official results.
One Polymarket user, going by “GayPride,” bet big on Mamdani early—$132,926 at 49.2% odds. The payout? Around $268,000. Not bad for a day’s work, if you can stomach the risk.
Why Prediction Markets Got It Right (Again)
This isn’t the first time these platforms have outguessed the experts. Last year, Polymarket correctly called Trump’s presidential win. Now, with Mamdani’s surprise victory, the debate over whether prediction markets are just gambling or something more useful is heating up again.
Alex Solleiro, co-founder of DASTAN (the company behind prediction market Myriad), put it bluntly: “Prediction markets break news faster than media and predict elections better than polls.” Whether that’s entirely true is up for debate, but it’s hard to ignore the results.
Big Money, Bigger Questions
The timing is interesting. Polymarket is reportedly closing a $200 million funding round, led by Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund, at a valuation over $1 billion. That kind of institutional backing suggests these platforms aren’t just a niche curiosity anymore.
Still, questions linger. Are prediction markets really more accurate, or just quicker to reflect shifts in sentiment? And what happens when big money starts influencing the odds?
For now, though, Mamdani’s win is another feather in their cap—and another headache for pollsters trying to explain how they got it wrong. Again.
